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Ecological Inference, Hybrid Models, and Voter Transitions


Project by Dr. André Klima, Prof. Dr. Helmut Küchenhoff, Prof. Dr. Paul W. Thurner

We develop and implement statistical solutions for the assessment of voter behavior and voter transitions in German and other contexts (France, UK etc. ) based on aggregate administrative data and on the enhancement of aggregate data with individual data (so-called hybrid models).

Based on a local project in the City of Munich at the occasion of the German Federal Election 2013 and the Bavarian Parliament Election 2013, we meanwhile support, e.g. the following cities for the upcoming 2017 German Federal Elections:

  • Berlin
  • Munich
  • Frankfurt / Main
  • Köln
  • Düsseldorf
  • Freiburg

Our Publications:

Klima, André, Helmut Küchenhoff, Mirjam Selzer, and Paul W. Thurner, 2017: Exit Polls und Hybrid-Modelle. Ein neuer Ansatz zur Modellierung von Wählerwanderungen. Springer: Wiesbaden.

Klima, André, Thomas Schlesinger, Paul W. Thurner, and Helmut Küchenhoff, 2017: Combining Aggregate Data and Individual Exit Polls for the Estimation of Voter Transitions. Sociological Methods and Research (2016 Impact Factor: 3.604, 2016 Ranking: 3/143 in Sociology | 1/49 in Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods)

Klima, André, Paul W. Thurner, Christoph Molnar, Thomas Schlesinger, and Helmut Küchenhoff, 2016: Estimation of voter transitions based on ecological inference: An empirical assessment of different approaches. AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2(100), 133-159.


Our Software

We have developed the easy-to- use package “eiwild” for the widely used statistical software “R”. In this package, the ecological inference model proposed by Rosen et al. in 2001 was extended to a hybrid model, allowing the inclusion of individual level data. See:

Thomas Schlesinger, 2014: eiwild: Ecological Inference with individual and aggregate data. R package version 0.6.7.


Dr. André Klima

Prof. Dr. Helmut Küchenhoff

Prof. Dr. Paul W. Thurner